Warren, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

189
FXUS63 KDTX 181959
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
359 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally cool temperatures will continue through the end of the
  workweek.

- The next chance for widespread rainfall occurs Tuesday night and
  Wednesday.

- Lingering shower chances persist Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Seasonably cool and breezy conditions persist today in the wake of a
broad upper low now parked over the Northeast. Lingering cyclonic
flow, tracing upstream to another trough crossing the Upper Midwest,
maintains a northerly component to low-level flow amidst ample
coverage of clouds. Meanwhile, from the 700 mb level (approx. 9
kft), height rises are underway which limits potential for ascent
and meaningful precipitation for the rest of today. Still can`t
completely rule out a few sprinkles this evening and overnight given
the degree of saturation (augmented by Lake Huron moisture flux) and
the presence of a shallow nocturnal mixed-layer through the dense
stratocumulus deck. Mentions of sprinkles have been added. Cooler
trend extends to overnight lows with readings dropping into the 40s
for most tonight.

Surface gradient flow emerges from the northeast Monday morning, an
extension of broad surface high pressure centered over southern
Hudson Bay. The pressure field responds to the progression of an
extra-tropical cyclone across The Plains, and into the Midwest. This
leads to some variability in wind direction throughout the day, but
generally from the northeast quadrant. Subsidence inversion holds on
Monday while boundary-layer depths increase toward the 5 kft mark.
Diurnal cloud response precedes broader top-down moistening Monday
night ahead of the next system.

Cloudier Tuesday with dry conditions to start. A notable uptick in
gustiness ensues late in the day as the lower column wind field
spills into Lower Michigan which features 925 mb winds of 25-30
knots. Questions remain regarding the actual onset time of
anticipated rainfall given the potential for the synoptic pattern to
briefly settle into a blocking configuration Tuesday afternoon and
evening. This could delay the onset of rainfall until late Tuesday
night or early Wednesday morning. Did make some minor downward
revisions to inherited NBM autopopulated PoPs. Eventually, the
southern stream speed max/trough releases across the Mid-Mississippi
River Tuesday night into Wednesday which allows for better ThetaE
advection into southern Lower Michigan and increasing coverage of
rain. Areas along and south of I-94 are expected to get the most
rainfall where low-end chances exist for a few rumbles of thunder.
The better instability will remain well to the south. Additional PV
anomaly and northwest flow/cold advection maintains chances for
additional rain and cooler temperatures through the end of the
workweek.

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly flow slowly shifts to the northeast by early Monday as
broad Plains low pressure reaches the mid-Mississippi. Strongest
winds occur over the southern basin of Lake Huron and the Saginaw
Bay due to the longer fetch with peak gusts able to reach 20-25kts.
Low tracks over the northern Ohio Valley-far southern Great Lakes
Tuesday/Wednesday further tightening the local gradient and offering
the period of overall strongest NE flow with 30kt gusts possible
particularly over the Saginaw Bay thanks to shoreline funneling.
System beings numerous showers the southern half of the region during
this time period as well however with the track to our south,
thunderstorm chances are slim to none. Periods of Small Craft
Advisories can be expected for the Lake Huron nearshore waters given
this prolonged period of onshore flow. Unsettled weather persists
through late week as upper troughing settling over the Great Lakes.
There is some signal for the aforementioned surface low to
retrograde back into the central Great Lakes Friday in response a
stronger developing Northeastern seaboard low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain returns Tuesday evening through Wednesday with
approaching Midwest low pressure. QPF spread ranges between 0.25 to
0.75 inches with the higher totals focused along/south of I-94.
Flood potential is low at this time given a duration of over 24
hours. Flooding will mainly focused on ponding of water on roadways
and other low-lying or poor drainage areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

AVIATION...

MVFR/LOW VFR clouds expected to hold through Monday morning as
surface trough/convergence hangs around with the cold airmass
leading to moisture enhancement from the Great Lakes. Low level
winds look to be shifting to the northeast, which will increase the
probability of MVFR clouds holding over the northern Taf sites, with
a very low chance of cigs even flirting with high IFR tonight.
Southern tafs (DTW/YIP/DET) stand the best chance for prolonged cigs
aoa 3000 feet, with periods of just SCT clouds still possible this
afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms through Monday.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon then
  high through Monday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-441.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....KGK
AVIATION.....SF


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